Preface ...................................................... xiii
Acknowledgments .............................................. xvii
1 Density-Independent Population Models ........................ 1
1.1 Exponential Growth ...................................... 1
1.2 Exponential Growth with Stocking or Harvesting ......... 22
1.3 Two Fundamental Excel Techniques ....................... 32
1.4 Explicit Formulas ...................................... 40
1.5 Equilibrium Values and Stability ....................... 50
2 Personal Finance ............................................ 59
2.1 Compound Interest and Savings .......................... 60
2.2 Borrowing for Major Purchases .......................... 77
2.3 Credit Cards ........................................... 92
2.4 The Time Value of Money: Present Value ................ 104
2.5 Car Leases ............................................ 112
3 Combat Models .............................................. 119
3.1 Lanchester Combat Model ............................... 120
3.2 Phase Plane Graphs .................................... 140
3.3 The Lanchester Model with Reinforcements .............. 146
3.1 Hughes Aimed Fire Salvo Model ......................... 153
3.5 Armstrong Salvo Model with Area Fire .................. 169
4 The Spread of Infectious Diseases
4.1 The S-I-R Model ....................................... 184
4.2 S-I-R with Vital Dynamics ............................. 203
4.3 Determining Parameters from Real Data ................. 216
4.4 S-I-R with Vital Dynamics and Routine Vaccinations .... 226
5 Density-Dependent Population Models
5.1 The Discrete Logistic Model ........................... 235
5.2 Logistic Growth with Allee Effects .................... 248
5.3 Logistic Growth with Harvesting ....................... 254
5.4 The Discrete Logistic Model and Chaos ................. 263
5.5 The Ricker Model ...................................... 266
6 Blood Alcohol Concentration and Pharmacokinetics
6.1 Blood Alcohol Concentration ........................... 273
6.2 The Widmark Model ..................................... 280
6.3 The Wagner Model ...................................... 283
6.4 Alcohol Consumption Patterns .......................... 289
6.5 More General Drug Elimination ......................... 301
6.6 The Volume of Distribution ............................ 319
6.7 Common Drugs .......................................... 321
7 Ranking Methods
7.1 Introduction to Markov Models ......................... 329
7.2 Ranking Sports Teams .................................. 342
7.3 Google PageRank ....................................... 361
8 Body Weight and Body Composition
8.1 Constant Calorie Expenditure .......................... 382
8.2 Variable Calorie Expenditure .......................... 385
8.3 Health Metrics ........................................ 394
8.4 Body Composition ...................................... 397
8.5 The Body Composition Model for Body Weight ............ 406
8.6 Points-based Systems: The Weight Watchers Model ....... 419
Appendix A: The Geometric Series Formula ...................... 431
Appendix B: Lanchester's Square Law and the Fractional
Exchange Ratio .................................... 433
Appendix C: Derivation of the FER= 1 Line for the Hughes
Salvo Model ....................................... 439
Appendix D: The Waiting Time Principle ........................ 441
Appendix E: Creating Cobweb Diagrams in Excel ................. 445
Appendix F: Proportion of Total Credit Distributed Does Not
Exceed 1 .......................................... 449
Bibliography .................................................. 451
Index ......................................................... 459
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