Pryedisloviye ..................................................... 3
Vyrazhyeniye priznatyel'nosti ....................................... 5
Dogovor k EHnyergyetichyeskoi KHartii ................................. 7
Kratkoye izlozhyeniye .............................................. 19
Glava 1: Vvyedyeniye .............................................. 35
1.1. Zadachi ................................................... 35
1.2. Podkhod ................................................... 35
1.3. Voprosy, podvyergayemyye obstoyatyel'nomu analizu ............. 35
Glava 2: Myekhanizmy formirovaniya tsyen na nyeft' i gaz:
tyeoryetichyeskiye i istorichyeskiye aspyekty ........................... 43
2.1. Tyeoryetichyeskiye aspyekty .................................... 43
2.2. Istorichyeskiye aspyekty ..................................... 57
2.3. Struktura rynka i rynochnyye myekhanizmy ..................... 66
Glava 3: Formirovaniye tsyen na nyeft' ............................. 69
3.1. Kratkoye izlozhyeniye ........................................ 69
3.2. Vvyedyeniye ................................................. 71
3.2.1. Nyeft' - unikal'nyi tovar .......................... 71
3.2.3. EHtalonnaya nyeft' ................................... 74
3.2.4. Sdyelki s syroi nyeft'yu ............................. 77
3.2.5. Formula tsyeny ...................................... 78
3.2.6. TSyenoobrazovaniye po printsipu nyetbehk ................ 79
3.2.7 Marzha nyeftyepyeryerabotki ............................. 80
3.3. Razvitiye myekhanizma formirovaniya tsyen na nyeft' ............. 82
3.3.1. Nachal'nyi pyeriod .................................. 82
3.3.2. Glavnyye nyeftyanyye kompanii ......................... 82
3.3.3. OPYEK .............................................. 83
3.3.4. Spotovyi i f'yuchyersnyi rynki ....................... 84
3.4. Spotovyi rynok / forvardnyi rynok / f'yuchyersnyi rynok /
rynok optsionov ........................................... 86
3.4.1. Spotovyi rynok .................................... 86
3.4.2. Forvardnyi rynok .................................. 87
3.4.3. F'yuchyersnyi rynok .................................. 88
3.4.4. Rynok optsionov .................................... 91
3.5. KHyedzhirovaniye i spyekulyatsiya ................................ 94
3.5.1. KHyedzhirovaniye ...................................... 94
3.5.2. Dlinnyi khyedzh i korotkii khyedzh ...................... 95
3.5.3. KHyedzhyery, spyekulyanty i arbitrazhyery ................. 96
3.5.4. Ryeguliruyuscii organ ................................ 96
3.6. Osnovy sovryemyennogo rynka nyefti .......................... 99
3.6.1. Nyedavniye izmyenyeniya v oblasti tsyen .................. 99
3.6.2. Spros ............................................ 100
3.6.3. Pryedlozhyeniye ...................................... 101
3.6.4. Nyeftyepyeryerabotka ................................. 103
3.6.5. Tovarnyye zapasy .................................. 105
3.7. Vyvody .................................................. 106
Glava 4: Formirovaniye tsyen na gaz .............................. 109
4.1. Stanyet li gaz takim zhye mirovym tovarom, kak nyeft'? ...... 109
4.2. Syevyernaya Amyerika ........................................ 114
4.2.1. Kratkoye izlozhyeniye ................................ 114
4.2.2. Vvyedyeniye ......................................... 115
4.2.2.1. YEdinaya gazotransportnaya sistyema
Syevyernoi Amyeriki ........................ 115
4.2.2.2. Syevyeroamyerikanskiye tyerminaly dlya
importa SPG ............................. 115
4.2.2.3. Spros na prirodnyi gaz v SSHA ............ 117
4.2.2.4. Pryedlozhyeniye prirodnogo gaza v SSHA ....... 119
4.2.2.5. Pryedlozhyeniye i spros v Kanadye ............ 120
4.2.3. EHvolyutsiya ryegulirovaniya gazovoi otrasli v SSHA ..... 122
4.2.3.1. Istoriya razvitiya ryegulirovaniya gazovoi
otrasli v SSHA ........................... 122
4.2.3.2. Zakon "O prirodnom gazye" ot 1938 goda ... 123
4.2.3.3. Ryeshyeniye Vyerkhovnogo Suda po dyelu
kompanii Phillips ....................... 123
4.2.3.4. Zakon "O politikye v oblasti prirodnogo
gaza" ot 1978 goda ...................... 124
4.2.3.5. Ryeaktsiya otrasli na zakon "O politikye v
oblasti prirodnogo gaza" ................ 125
4.2.3.6. Rasporyazhyeniye FERC N380 .................. 126
4.2.3.7. Rasporyazhyeniye FERC N436 .................. 127
4.2.3.8. Problyemy truboprovodnykh kompanii v
svyazi s obyazatyel'stvom "byeri ili
plati" .................................. 127
4.2.4. Ryegulirovaniye gazovogo syektora v Kanadye .......... 128
4.2.5. EHvolyutsiya tsyen na gaz v Syevyernoi Amyerikye ........... 129
4.2.5.1. Formirovaniye tsyen na gaz v SSHA do
prinyatiya zakona "O politikye v oblasti
prirodnogo gaza" ........................ 129
4.2.5.2. Zakon "O politikye v oblasti prirodnogo
gaza" i chastichnaya otmyena ryegulirovaniya
tsyen na gaz .............................. 130
4.2.5.3. Vliyaniye politiki ryegulirovaniya v SSHA
na tsyeny v Kanadye ........................ 131
4.2.6. Nynyeshnyaya sistyema tsyenoobrazovaniya v Syevyernoi
Amyerikye .......................................... 133
4.2.6.1. Poyavlyeniye uzla KHyenri-KHab v kachyestvye
tsyentral'nogo ehlyemyenta tsyenoobrazovaniya
v Syevyernoi Amyerikye ...................... 133
4.2.6.2. Funktsionirovaniye syevyeroamyerikanskoi
sistyemy ................................. 134
4.2.6.3. Formirovaniye tsyen na gaz v Syevyernoi
Amyerikye ................................. 134
4.2.6.4. Nynyeshnyaya vzaimosvyaz' tsyen v Syevyernoi
Amyerikye ................................. 138
4.2.7. Vyvody ........................................... 140
4.3. Vyelikobritaniya .......................................... 141
4.3.1. Kratkoye izlozhyeniye ................................ 141
4.3.2. Vvyedyeniye ......................................... 142
4.3.2.1. Istoriya ryegulirovaniya gazovoi otrasli
Vyelikobritanii .......................... 142
4.3.2.2. Nalogovyi ryezhim v Vyelikobritanii ........ 144
4.3.2.3. Gazotransportnaya sistyema ................ 145
4.3.3. Spros i pryedlozhyeniye v Vyelikobritanii ............. 148
4.3.3.1. Spros na gaz ............................ 148
4.3.3.2. Pryedlozhyeniye i torgovlya gazom ............ 148
4.3.3.3. Buduscyeye pryedlozhyeniye gaza v
Vyelikobritanii .......................... 150
4.3.3.4. Voprosy dostupa tryet'ikh storon k
tyerminalam SPG .......................... 154
4.3.4. Formirovaniye tsyen na prirodnyi gaz ................ 155
4.3.4.1. Formirovaniye tsyen do ryestrukturizatsii
otrasli ................................. 155
4.3.4.2. TSyenoobrazovaniye na ryestrukturirovannom
gazovom rynkye ........................... 157
4.3.4.3. Kakim obrazom tsyeny v Vyelikobritanii
vzaimodyeistvuyut s tsyenami na
kontinyentye? ............................. 159
4.3.4.4. Opyt zimy 2005-2006 godov ............... 160
4.3.5. Vyvody ........................................... 161
4.4. Kontinyental'naya YEvropa .................................. 163
4.4.1. Kratkoye izlozhyeniye ................................ 163
4.4.2. Formirovaniye struktury rynka i import ............ 165
4.4.3. Groningyenskaya kontsyeptsiya stoimosti zamyescyeniya i
dolgosrochnykh ehksportnykh kontraktov s
obyazatyel'stvami po minimal'noi oplatye ............ 166
4.4.4. Kontrakty na import gaza poslye Groningyena ........ 174
4.4.5. Raundy po pyeryesmotru tsyen ......................... 188
4.4.6. Izmyenyeniya v sfyerye ryegulirovaniya .................. 190
4.4.7. Transgranichnyye postavki gaza v stranakh
byvshyego SEHV ...................................... 191
4.4.8. Vyvody ........................................... 200
4.5. Szhizhyennyi prirodnyi gaz ................................. 203
4.5.1. Kratkoye izlozhyeniye ................................ 203
4.5.2. Vvyedyeniye ......................................... 204
4.5.2.1. Istoriya mirovoi torgovli SPG ............ 204
4.5.2.2. Rol' dolgosrochnykh kontraktov v
traditsionnoi torgovlye SPG ............... 206
4.5.2.3. Izdyerzhki, svyazannyye s SPG ............... 209
4.5.2.4. Formirovaniye bolyeye gibkikh rynkov SPG .... 210
4.5.2.5. Arbitrazh ................................ 215
4.5.3. Formirovaniye tsyen na SPG .......................... 216
4.5.3.1. Ryegional'nyye razlichiya v logikye
formirovaniya tsyen na SPG ................. 216
4.5.3.2. Formirovaniye tsyen na SPG v bassyeinye
Atlantichyeskogo okyeana na nachal'nom
ehtapye ................................... 218
4.5.3.3. Formirovaniye tsyen na SPG v bassyeinye
Tikhogo okyeana na nachal'nom ehtapye ........ 220
4.5.3.4. Rastuscaya nyeobkhodimost' izmyenyeniya formul
tsyenoobrazovaniya v 1990-kh godakh .......... 221
4.5.4. Sovryemyennyye podkhody k zaklyuchyeniyu kontraktov
na SPG, sformirovavshiyesya v 1990-kh godakh .......... 222
4.5.4.1. Novyye tyendyentsii v otnosyascyeisya k SPG
dogovornoi praktikye v Azii .............. 222
4.5.4.2. Vykhod Kitaya i Indii na aziatskii
rynok ................................... 223
4.5.4.3. Rost tsyen na nyeft' i yego vliyaniye na
tsyeny v Syevyero-Vostochnoi Azii ............ 225
4.5.4.4. Poslyedniye sobytiya na rynkakh Azii ........ 227
4.5.4.5. Formiruyusciisya rynok na Zapadnom
pobyeryezh'ye Syevyernoi Amyeriki .............. 227
4.5.4.6. Novyye tyendyentsii v otnosyascyeisya k SPG
dogovornoi praktikye v bassyeinye
Atlantichyeskogo okyeana ................... 228
4.5.4.7. Dogovornaya praktika na Blizhnyem
Vostokye ................................. 231
4.5.5. Dogovornaya praktika dlya ryestrukturirovannykh
rynkov gaza ...................................... 231
4.5.5.1. Syevyernaya Amyerika ........................ 231
4.5.5.2. Vyelikobritaniya .......................... 232
4.5.6. Vyvody ........................................... 233
Glava 5: Obsciye vyvody ......................................... 237
Bibliografiya .................................................. 249
Spisok sokrascyenii ............................................. 255
Glossarii tyerminov ............................................ 263
Spisok risunkov
Ris. 1. Myezhdunarodnaya tsyepochka formirovaniya stoimosti nyefti
i gaza ................................................. 40
Ris. 2: Ryenty, svyazannyye s dobychyei nyefti ....................... 49
Ris. 3: Rynki uglyevodorodov: ot nyekonkuryentnykh k konkuryentnym
strukturam ............................................. 58
Ris. 4: Razvitiye struktury mirovogo nyeftyanogo rynka i vidov
sdyelok ................................................. 64
Ris. 5: Dinamika razvitiya gazovykh rynkov ....................... 65
Ris. 6: Struktura potryeblyeniya pyervichnykh ehnyergyetichyeskikh
ryesursov v mirye v 2005 g. .............................. 72
Ris. 7: CHistaya stoimost' nyeftyeproduktov i tsyeny na syruyu nyeft' -
sravnyeniye Brent (1997-2005 gg.) i Urals
(1997-2005 gg.) ........................................ 74
Ris. 8: TSyeny na ehtalonnyye sorta nyefti .......................... 76
Ris. 9: Marzhi nyeftyepyeryerabotki (1995-2006 gg.) ................. 80
Ris.10: Pribyl' po otnoshyeniyu k tsyenye dlya dlinnoi i korotkoi
pozitsii ................................................ 89
Ris.11: TSyena v zavisimosti ot sroka postavki v sluchaye kontango
i behkvardyeishn .......................................... 91
Ris.12: Dinamika pribyli i tsyen: "dlinnyi koll" - "dlinnyi put"
i "korotkii koll" - "korotkii put" ..................... 93
Ris.13: Sootnoshyeniye f'yuchyersnykh i spotovykh tsyen .................. 95
Ris.14: Pozitsii f'yuchyersov na WTI na NYMEX po sostoyaniyu na
20 fyevralya 2007 g. ..................................... 97
Ris.15: Mirovyye spotovyye tsyeny na syruyu nyeft'
v 1986-2007 gg. ........................................ 99
Ris.16: Dobycha nyefti v byvshyem SSSR ............................ 102
Ris.17: Zapasy syroi nyefti promyshlyennogo syektora v stranakh
OEHSR (1990-2005 gg.) .................................. 106
Ris.18: Dobycha i potryeblyeniye v osnovnykh ryegionakh SSHA v
2004 g. (v mlrd. m3) .................................. 116
Ris.19: Dobycha i potryeblyeniye v osnovnykh ryegionakh Kanady
v 2004 g. (v mlrd. m3) ................................ 117
Ris.20: Spros na gaz v SSHA v pyeriodye 1950 g. (mlrd. m3) .... 118
Ris.21: Sopostavlyeniye prognozov sprosa na gaz v SSHA v ramkakh
yezhyegodnykh obzorov EIA po godam sostavlyeniya
prognoza .............................................. 119
Ris.22: Pryedlozhyeniye gaza na rynkakh SSHA s 1986 g. po
syegodnyashnii dyen' i prognoz EIA do 2020 g. ............. 120
Ris.23: Spros na gaz v Kanadye i chistyi ob'yem ehksporta gaza v
SSHA (1976-2003 gg.) ................................... 121
Ris.24: Dinamika tsyen na ust'ye skvazhiny do i poslye prinyatiya
zakona "O politikye v oblasti prirodnogo gaza"
ot 1978 g. ............................................ 126
Ris.25: Potryeblyeniye prirodnogo gaza v SSHA v pyeriod
"gazovogo puzyrya" ..................................... 127
Ris.26: Formirovaniye tsyen na gaz pri chastichnom
dyeryegulirovanii soglasno zakonu "O politikye
v oblasti prirodnogo gaza", dyemonstriruyuscyeye
ehffyekt pyeryekryestnogo subsidirovaniya
dyeryeguliruyemogo gaza (tsyeny na avgust 1982 g.) ......... 131
Ris.27: Dinamika tsyen na gaz na KHyenri-KHab s 1991 g.
(na osnovye tsyen "strip" na NYMEX) ....................... 135
Ris.28: Klassichyeskii primyer tyeoryetichyeskoi dinamiki
pryedlozhyeniya, sprosa i tsyen ............................. 136
Ris.29: Bolyeye ryealistichnyi grafik kratkosrochnogo
pryedlozhyeniya i sprosa na gaz v usloviyakh gazovoi
konkuryentsii ........................................... 136
Ris.30: YEscye odin grafik kratkosrochnogo pryedlozhyeniya /
sprosa - dva rynka s vosstanovlyennoi konkuryentsiyei
myezhdu nyeft'yu i gazom .................................. 137
Ris.31: Vzaimosvyaz' myezhdu spotovymi tsyenami i tsyenoi "strip" na
NYMEX po KHyenri-KHab .................................... 138
Ris.32: Bazisnyye diffyeryentsialy (otnosityel'no KHyenri-KHab)
po otdyel'nym gazoraspryedyelityel'nym sistyemam ........... 139
Ris.33: Potryeblyeniye gaza, dobytogo v Syevyernom morye, i
chistyi import gaza v Vyelikobritaniyu ................... 149
Ris.34: Sopostavlyeniye dokazannykh zapasov gaza
Vyelikobritanii v Syevyernom morye s obyespyechyennost'yu
dobychi dokazannymi zapasami ........................... 150
Ris.35: Dobycha gaza v Vyelikobritanii .......................... 151
Ris.36: CHistyi ob'yem torgovli gazom Vyelikobritanii ............ 152
Ris.37: Spotovyye tsyeny na gaz podryvayut stoimost'
postavok Centrica v usloviyakh libyeralizatsii
rynka pri nalichii izbytochnogo pryedlozhyeniya ............. 157
Ris.38: TSyeny na NBP v Vyelikobritanii .......................... 158
Ris.39: Bazisnyi diffyeryentsial - Zyebryuggye/NBP .................. 159
Ris.40: Sopostavlyeniye tsyen v Zyebryuggye i na byel'giiskoi
granitsye ............................................... 160
Ris.41: Dinamika postavok prirodnogo gaza v Zapadnuyu YEvropu,
vklyuchaya Norvyegiyu i SHvyeitsariyu .......................... 166
Ris.42: TSyeny na rossiiskii gaz, postavlyayemyi v YES i strany,
raspolozhyennyye vdol' trassy truboprovoda ............... 194
Ris.43: Rost importa SPG po ryegionam (mlrd. m3) ............... 206
Ris.44: Rost ehksporta SPG po istochnikam postavok (mlrd. m3) ... 207
Ris.45: Postavki s Blizhnyego Vostoka uvyelichivayutsya i myenyayut
priorityetnyye napravlyeniya ehksporta (mlrd. m3) .......... 207
Ris.46: Samokontraktovaniye - novyi podkhod k ryealizatsii SPG
po sravnyeniyu s traditsionnymi "tsyelyevymi kontraktami" ... 212
Ris.47: Torgovlya SPG dyemonstriruyet rastuscyeye znachyeniye
kratkosrochnykh prodazh (mlrd. m3) ....................... 213
Ris.48: Otsyenka kontraktnogo statusa tvyerdykh i vyeroyatnykh
moscnostyei SPG na 2010 god (mln. tonn SPG) ............. 214
Ris.49: Sravnityel'nyye urovni chistykh ehksportnykh tsyen (nyetbehk)
dlya nyekotorykh uchastnikov arbitrazhnykh opyeratsii
v Atlantichyeskom bassyeinye - postavki SPG iz
Trinidada i Nigyerii na rynki Ispanii i pobyeryezh'ye
Myeksikanskogo zaliva SSHA .............................. 216
Ris.50: Sravnityel'nyye urovni chistykh ehksportnykh tsyen
(nyetbehk) dlya blizhnyevostochnykh postavscikov SPG pri
postavkakh na rynki Ispanii, YAponii i pobyeryezh'ye
Myeksikanskogo zaliva SSHA .............................. 217
Ris.51: "S-obraznaya krivaya" dlya Syevyero-Vostochnoi Azii na
bazye "yaponskoi tamozhyennoi stoimosti" syroi nyefti
(dlya "yaponskoi nyeftyanoi korziny") ..................... 221
Ris.52: "YAponskaya tamozhyennaya stoimost'" syroi nyefti
(dlya "yaponskoi nyeftyanoi korziny") i importnyye
tsyeny na SPG (doll. SSHA za mln. BTYE) ................... 226
Ris.53: Nyekotoryye aziatskiye tsyeny na SPG, privyedyennyye k
yedinoi blizhnyevostochnoi kontrol'noi tochkye putyem
ispol'zovaniya bazisnogo diffyeryentsiala dlya Katara ...... 226
Spisok vstavok i spisok tablits
Spisok vstavok
Vstavka 1: EHkonomichyeskiye poslyedstviya fizichyeskikh svoistv
iskopayemykh vidov topliva ............................ 37
Vstavka 2: Zapasy i ryesursy .................................... 47
Vstavka 3: Nyesovyershyenstvo rynka ................................ 55
Vstavka 4: Spotovyye i f'yuchyersnyye tsyeny .......................... 92
Vstavka 5: "Krehk spryed" ........................................ 96
Vstavka 6: Tovaroindyeksnyye fondy ............................... 98
Vstavka 7: Biotoplivo ......................................... 104
Vstavka 8: Stilizovannaya formula raschyeta tsyeny soglasno
kontsyeptsii "chistoi ehksportnoi stoimosti" po
dolgosrochnym kontraktam ............................ 176
Vstavka 9: Stilizovannyye polozhyeniya stat'i o pyeryesmotrye
tsyeny ............................................... 178
Spisok tablits
Tablitsa 1: EHvolyutsiya myezhdunarodnykh myekhanizmov formirovaniya
tsyen na nyeft' ........................................ 61
Tablitsa 2: 10 krupnyeishikh potryebityelyei, proizvodityelyei,
importyerov, ehksportyerov nyefti v 2005 g .............. 73
Tablitsa 3: KHaraktyeristiki kontraktov: Spot / Forvard /
F'yuchyers / Optsiony ................................... 88
Tablitsa 4: Stanyet li gaz, kak i nyeft', (mirovym)
birzhyevym tovarom? .................................. 113
|
