List of Tables ................................................. xi
List of Figuress ............................................. xiii
Chapter 1. Introduction ......................................... 1
1.1 Role of Agriculture in Economic Growth and Poverty
Reduction .................................................. 1
1.2 Microeconomics of Crop Choice under Incomplete Markets ..... 3
1.3 South Asian Context ........................................ 7
1.4 Structure of the Book ..................................... 10
Part I. Country-level Analysis for India, Pakistan, and
Bangladesh
Chapter 2. Long-term Agricultural Growth and Crop Shifts ....... 15
2.1 Introduction .............................................. 15
2.2 Data ...................................................... 16
2.3 Analytical Framework ...................................... 17
2.4 Growth Performance of Agriculture ......................... 21
2.5 Changes in Crop Mix and Their Contribution to Land
Productivity .............................................. 31
2.6 Conclusion ................................................ 38
Chapter 3. Agriculture-Macroeconomy Linkage .................... 41
3.1 Introduction .............................................. 41
3.2 Data ...................................................... 42
3.1 Measures to Analyze the Agriculture-Macroeconomy
Linkage ................................................... 43
3.4 Empirical Results ......................................... 45
3.5 Discussion on the Results Regarding the Colonial Period ... 50
3.6 Conclusion ................................................ 55
Appendix. Part I. Compilation of Long-term Data for
Areas Currently in India, Pakistan, and
Bangladesh, c. 1900-2000 ....................................... 57
A.l Introduction .............................................. 57
A.2 Data Sources and Coverage ................................. 59
A.3 Data Compilation for Individual Crops ..................... 61
A.4 Estimation of Aggregate Output ............................ 90
A.5 Estimation of Cultivated Land and Agricultural Labor
Force .................................................... 100
A.6 Long-term Series of GDP and Non-agricultural Value-
added .................................................... 104
A.7 Concluding Remarks ....................................... 110
Part II District-level Analysis
Chapter 4. Land Productivity and Spatial Crop Shifts in
West Punjab ................................................... 115
4.1 Introduction ............................................. 115
4.2 Data ..................................................... 116
4.3 Agricultural Transformation and Crop Shifts in West
Punjab ................................................... 119
4.4 Crop Shifts as a Source of Growth in West Punjab ......... 127
4.5 Dynamics of Crop Diversification at the District Level ... 134
4.6 Conclusion ...............................................
Chapter 2. Spatial Changes in Agricultural Production in
Contemporary India ............................................ 141
5.1 Introduction ............................................. 141
5.2 Data ..................................................... 142
5.3 Spatial Heterogeneity in Agricultural Intensification .... 143
5.4 Spatial Concentration Indices across Indian Districts .... 145
5.5 Correlates of District-level Changes in Land and
Fertilizer Use ........................................... 155
5.6 Conclusion ............................................... 162
Part III. Multi-level Analysis with Farm-level Information
Chapter 6. Cropping Patterns at Different Aggregation
Levels in West Punjab ......................................... 167
6.1 Introduction ............................................. 167
6.2 Data ..................................................... 168
6.3 Analytical Framework ..................................... 174
6.4 Crop Specialization at Provincial, District, and Farm
Levels ................................................... 175
6.5 Conclusion ............................................... 181
Chapter 7. Crops, Livestock, and Disasters in the North-West
Frontier Province ............................................. 185
7.1 Introduction ............................................. 185
7.2 The Study Area ........................................... 187
7.3 Provincial- and District-level Analysis of Crop
Production and Livestock ................................. 190
7.4 Household-level Asset Dynamics in 1996-99 ................ 201
7.5 Reinterpreting the Historical Patterns ................... 212
7.6 Conclusion ............................................... 213
Chapter 8. Conclusion ......................................... 217
8.1 Summary of Findings (1): Productivity and Crop Shifts
in Agricultural Development .............................. 217
8.2 Summary of Findings (2): Empirics of Agricultural
Development in South Asia ................................ 218
8.3 Areas for Future Work .................................... 220
8.4 Policy Implications ...................................... 221
References .................................................... 223
Index ......................................................... 231
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