Foreword ........................................................ v
Т.F. Mahne
List of Figures ................................................ xi
Preface ...................................................... xiii
List of Participants and Contributors .......................... xv
Chapter 1. Introduction ......................................... 1
Chapter 2. Environmental Problems ............................... 4
2.1 Human Activities and Environmental Problems ................ 4
2.2 Differences in Outlook on Environmental Problems ........... 8
Chapter 3. Simulation Modelling and Systems Analysis ........... 11
Chapter 4. Purposes of Environmental Modelling ................. 15
4.1 Modelling as an Extension of Information Systems .......... 15
4.2 Modelling in Environmental Management and Decision-
Making .................................................... 15
4.3 Modelling as a Research Tool .............................. 17
4.4 Modelling for Allocation of Research Resources ............ 17
4.5 Modelling in Education .................................... 19
4.6 Modelling in Public Information ........................... 20
Chapter 5 The Decision-Maker's Outlook ........................ 21
Chapter 6 The Model Builder's Outlook ......................... 28
Chapter 7 Environmental Simulation Modelling .................. 31
7.1 The Nature of Simulation Modelling ........................ 31
7.2 Classification of Environmental Simulation Models ......... 35
7.3 Approaches to Model Building: The Problem of Complexity ... 35
Chapter 8. Problem of Modelling for Decision-Making ............ 40
8.1 Problems in Model Building Methodology .................... 40
8.1.1 Data Requirements .................................. 40
8.1.2 Scale: Temporal and Spatial ........................ 41
8.1.3 Aggregation ........................................ 41
8.1.4 Interfaces between Sub-Models ...................... 42
8.1.5 Validation of Models ............................... 42
8.1.6 Transferability of Models .......................... 43
8.2 Problems of Providing a Suitable Environment for Model
Builders .................................................. 43
8.3 Problems Arising between Modellers and Classical
Scientists ................................................ 44
8.4 Communication Problems between Disciplines ................ 44
8.5 Communication Problems between Modellers and Decision-
Makers .................................................... 45
8.6 Special Problems of Developing Countries .................. 46
Chapter 9. Case Studies of Simulation Modelling ................ 48
9.1 The Toronto Air Pollution Simulation Model ................ 48
9.2 The Bedford-Ouse Study .................................... 50
9.3 Model of Water Resource Development and Utilization in
Israel .................................................... 52
9.4 Simulation of Mediterranean Coastal Desert Ecosystems ..... 56
9.5 A Stochastic Climate/Food Simulation Model ................ 57
9.6 A Gaming-Simulation for Nutrition Planning ................ 59
Chapter 10. Recent Experience in Simulation Modelling for
Environmental Management in Different Countries ................ 61
10.1 Australia ................................................. 61
10.2 Egypt ..................................................... 62
10.3 Federal Republic of Germany ............................... 63
10.4 Japan ..................................................... 64
10.5 The Soviet Union .......................................... 65
10.6 The United Kingdom ........................................ 66
10.7 The United States ......................................... 67
Chapter 11. Possible Areas for Improvements .................... 68
11.1 Introduction .............................................. 68
11.2 Improvements in Simulation Modelling ...................... 68
11.2.1 Modelling within a Broader Context ................. 68
11.2.2 Parameter Estimation ............................... 70
11.2.3 Treatment of Uncertainty ........................... 72
11.2.4 Sensitivity Analysis ............................... 73
11.2.5 Validation ......................................... 74
11.2.6 Computer Software and Hardware ..................... 74
11.3 Strategies for Improving Human Interactions ............... 76
11.3.1 Improving the Interfaces between Scientists from
Different Disciplines .............................. 76
11.3.2 Improving the Interface between Modeller and
Decision-Maker ..................................... 77
Chapter 12. Priorities for Improvements in Environmental
Modelling ...................................................... 80
12.1 Priorities for Improvement in Developed Countries ......... 80
12.2 Priorities for Improvement in Developing Countries ........ 82
Chapter 13. Recommendations .................................... 84
Bibliography ................................................... 87
Appendix 1. Glossary ........................................... 91
Appendix 2. Classification of Models, and a Survey of
Modelling Experience in Canada ..................... 96
Author Index .................................................. 107
Subject Index ................................................. 109
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