List of Figures ................................................ xi
List of Tables ............................................... xiii
Preface ........................................................ xv
PART I. MAN'S PLACE IN THE BIOSPHERE
Chapter 1. Environmental Properties and Processes ............... 3
A. Perspective .................................................. 3
B. Key Processes in the Biosphere ............................... 5
C. Man's Use of the Environment ................................. 7
D. Man's Role within the Biosphere ............................. 12
Chapter 2. The Role of Science in Environmental Policy ......... 17
A. Steps Towards a Policy ...................................... 17
B. The Recognition of Problems ................................. 19
C. The Evaluation of Problems .................................. 22
D. Information and Communication Problems ...................... 27
PART II. THE MID-TERM PROGRAMME OF SCOPE
AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVITIES OF ICSU
Chapter 3. Environmental Concerns .............................. 31
A. Introduction ................................................ 31
B. Biogeochemical Cycles ....................................... 33
1. Introduction ............................................. 33
2. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulphur ........................ 36
a. Man and biogeochemical cycles: impacts and problems ... 36
b. Flow charts for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulphur ..... 38
c. Nitrogen flow chart and comments ...................... 39
d. Implications of man's activity for the nitrogen
cycle ................................................. 42
e. The nitrogen cycle: trends ............................ 43
f. Phosphorus: flow chart and comments ................... 43
g. Phosphorus: implications of man's activity ............ 45
h. Phosphorus: future trends ............................. 46
i. Sulphur: flow chart and comments ...................... 46
j. Sulphur: first global budget .......................... 48
к. Sulphur: second global budget ......................... 50
l. A regional sulphur budget for Northwest Europe ........ 51
m. Sulphur: trends and implications ...................... 52
n. Further research on nitrogen, phosphorus, and
sulphur cycles ........................................ 52
3. Carbon ................................................... 55
C. Climate ..................................................... 58
1. Introduction ............................................. 58
2. World climate: past and present .......................... 59
a. Types of climatic data ................................ 59
b. Some properties of climatic data ...................... 59
c. The natural variability of climate .................... 60
d. Man's impact on climate ............................... 61
3. The prediction of climate ................................ 62
a. Statistical correlations .............................. 62
b. Numerical models ...................................... 64
4. Some current research activities ......................... 67
a. Introduction .......................................... 67
b. The Sahelian drought .................................. 68
c. Stratospheric ozone ................................... 69
d. The carbon dioxide problem ............................ 71
5. The impact of climate on man ............................. 71
D. Pollutants in the Environment ............................... 75
1. Background ............................................... 75
2. The concepts of ecotoxicology ............................ 77
a. Amounts manufactured and released ..................... 78
b. Persistence in the environment ........................ 78
c. Transport in the environment .......................... 78
d. Metabolism in the receptor ............................ 79
e. Dose-effect relations ................................. 79
f. Assessment of environmental impact .................... 80
g. Analysis .............................................. 81
E. Ecosystem Processes ......................................... 81
1. The analysis and modelling of successional change ........ 83
a. Present concepts regarding ecological succession ...... 83
b. Methods available for modelling and predicting
successional patterns ................................. 85
c. Application to management of natural and
near-natural ecological systems ....................... 87
d. Conclusions and recommendations ....................... 90
2. Irrigation and drainage of arid lands .................... 91
a. Irrigation and world food ............................. 91
b. Physical water efficiency in crop production .......... 92
c. Water and salt balance in the root zone ............... 95
d. Other impacts ......................................... 97
e. Conclusions and recommendations ....................... 98
Chapter 4. Environmental Management ........................... 100
A. Problem Identification and Monitoring ...................... 101
1. Introduction ............................................ 101
2. Problem detection ....................................... 102
3. Monitoring .............................................. 102
a. The present interest in monitoring ................... 102
b. A definition of monitoring ........................... 103
c. Criteria of approach to monitoring ................... 104
d. The role of monitoring in environmental protection ... 106
e. Conclusion ........................................... 113
B. Modelling .................................................. 114
1. Introduction ............................................ 114
2. Purposes of environmental modelling ..................... 115
3. Decision-maker's outlook ................................ 116
4. The model builder's outlook ............................. 116
5. The gaps ................................................ 117
6. Environmental simulation models ......................... 118
7. The potential for environmental systems analysis and
model building .......................................... 119
8. Bridging the gaps ....................................... 120
a. Scientist to decision-maker .......................... 120
b. Scientist to scientist ............................... 121
c. Gaming ............................................... 122
d. Handling uncertainty ................................. 122
e. Validation and credibility ........................... 122
9. Steps toward improvement ................................ 123
C. Risk Estimation ............................................ 124
1. Concepts ................................................ 124
2. Example of risk estimates ............................... 126
3. The future of risk estimation ........................... 127
D. Evaluation and Communication ............................... 127
E. Standard Setting ........................................... 131
1. Introduction ............................................ 131
2. Standards and criteria for human habitations ............ 132
a. Background ........................................... 132
b. Existing standards and criteria ...................... 134
c. Evaluation and rationale ............................. 135
d. The emergence of policy .............................. 136
e. Conclusion ........................................... 138
Chapter 5. Activities of the International Council of
Scientific Unions (ICSU) ...................................... 140
PART III. THE FUTURE
Chapter 6. A Forward Look ..................................... 147
A. General Perspectives ....................................... 147
B. Man and Environment ........................................ 148
C. Actions in the Future ...................................... 149
D. Specific Actions ........................................... 149
E. Responsibilities of the Scientific Community ............... 152
Appendixes
Appendix A Literature cited ............................... 155
Appendix В Activities of ICSU unions and associated
scientific groups .............................. 170
Appendix С Steering Committee and Project Chairmen in
the SCOPE Mid-term Programme ................... 197
Appendix D Methyl mercury: critical groups and sources
of intake ...................................... 199
Index ......................................................... 215
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