Forecasting forest futures: a hybrid modelling approach to the assessment of sustainability of forest ecosystems and their values / H.Kimmins et al. - Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon; New York: Routledge, 2010. - xiv, 281 p., [8] p. of plates: ill., maps. - (Earthscan forest library). - Ref.: p.237-271. - Ind.: p.273-281. - ISBN 978-1-84407-922-3  Место хранения:   034 | Институт леса СО РАН | Красноярск | Библиотека

Оглавление / Contents

Preface ........................................................ ix Acknowledgements ............................................... xi List of abbreviations ........................................ xiii 1 Introduction: Why do we Need Ecosystem-Level Models as Decision-Support Tools in Forestry? .......................... 1 Introduction ................................................. 1 Human population growth: the ultimate environmental threat to the world s forests ....................................... 2 The failure of science to provide the necessary analytical and forecasting tools for resource management: the question of complexity and prediction ..... 5 Complexity and prediction in forestry: levels of biological organization and integration ................................. 9 The role of process-based, ecosystem-level hybrid simulation models as a component of the solution to problems posed by complexity in forestry ................. 11 Take-home message ........................................... 14 Additional material ......................................... 14 Notes ....................................................... 14 2 Ecological and Environmental Concepts that should be Addressed in Forestry Decision-Support Tools ................ 17 Introduction ................................................ 17 The problem of uncritical use of, or failure to define, terms commonly used in environmental debates about forestry: the dangers posed by the anthropomorphizing of ecosystems .................................................. 18 Ecosystem stability ......................................... 22 Ecosystem resilience ........................................ 33 Ecosystem health ............................................ 35 Forest ecosystem integrity .................................. 37 Are ecosystems complex adaptive systems'? ................... 39 Old growth .................................................. 40 Dangers of the misuse of terminology: feeding inappropriate belief systems ................................ 42 Take-home message ........................................... 43 Additional material ......................................... 43 3 Hybrid Simulation in the Context of Other Classes of Forest Models, and the Development of the FORECAST Family of Hybrid Simulation Models ................................. 45 Introduction ................................................ 45 A three-level classification of models ...................... 45 Brief history of the development of these three categories .. 48 The FORECAST-HORIZON family of hybrid simulation models ..... 52 Major categories of hybrid simulation models we have developed ................................................... 53 Take-home message ........................................... 57 Additional material ......................................... 57 4 Forestry in Transition: The Need for Individual Tree Models ...................................................... 59 Introduction ................................................ 59 The ideal individual tree model ............................. 60 Individual tree models as management tools .................. 65 FORCEE: a comprehensive, spatially explicit, individual tree management and agroforestry model ...................... 69 Take-home message ........................................... 76 Additional material ......................................... 77 5 Stand-Level Hybrid Models as Toob to Support Ecosystem- Based Management ............................................ 79 Introduction ................................................ 79 Classification of stand-level hybrid models ................. 81 Description of the hybrid modelling approach employed in FORECAST .................................................... 82 Overview of FORECAST evaluation studies ..................... 88 Applications of FORECAST ................................... 101 Development of FORECAST Climate ............................ 115 Take-home message .......................................... 117 Additional material ........................................ 118 6 Landscape-Level Models in Forest Management ................ 121 Introduction ............................................... 121 Development of landscape-level models for forest management ................................................. 122 The LLEMS model: a multi-value, local landscape extension of FORECAST for variable retention harvesting .............. 126 Example application of LLEMS to evaluate dispersed retention alternatives .................................. 132 Ongoing development ........................................ 134 Take-home message .......................................... 135 Additional material ........................................ 135 7 Educational Models in Forest Management .................... 137 Introduction ............................................... 137 The use of ecological models as educational tools .......... 143 FORTOON: a high-school-level, introductory, multiple- value forest management game ............................... 147 PFF: Possible Forest Futures ............................... 151 Multiple run manager for FORECAST .......................... 152 Take-home message .......................................... 153 Additional material ........................................ 154 8 How to Develop a Model for Forest Management ............... 155 Introduction ............................................... 155 Basic steps to develop a model of forest management ........ 162 Uncertainty and complexity in model development ............ 183 Take-home message .......................................... 191 Additional material ........................................ 191 Note ....................................................... 191 9 The Role of Ecosystem Management Models in Adaptive Management, Certification and Land Reclamation ............. 193 Introduction ............................................... 193 The role of forest ecosystem management models in adaptive management ........................................ 194 The need for credible forecasts of possible forest futures as an essential component of forest certification .. 200 Ecosystem management models in reclamation planning ........ 207 Take-home message .......................................... 210 Additional material ........................................ 211 Note ....................................................... 211 10 Future Perspectives in Hybrid Modelling .................... 213 Introduction ............................................... 213 Linking forest management models that work at different scales ..................................................... 214 Using hybrid models and visualizations to communicate with the general public .................................... 216 Take-home message .......................................... 235 Additional material ........................................ 236 Notes ...................................................... 236 References .................................................... 237 Index ......................................................... 273