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ОбложкаLarge-scale disasters: prediction, control, and mitigation / ed. by Gad-el-Hak M. - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008. - xxiii, 576 p.: ill. (some col.), maps (chiefly col.). - Ind.: p.573-576. - ISBN 978-0-521-87293-5
 

Оглавление / Contents
 
Preface ........................................................ xv
About the editor .............................................. xix
List of contributors .......................................... xxi

1  Introduction ................................................. 1
      Mohamed Gad-el-Hak

   1.1  What is a large-scale disaster? ......................... 1
   1.2  Book contents............................................ 2
   References ................................................... 3

2  The art and science of large-scale disasters ................. 5
      Mohamed Gad-el-Hak

   2.1  Are disasters a modern curse? ........................... 5
   2.2  Disaster scope .......................................... 6
   2.3  Facets of large-scale disasters ......................... 9
   2.4  The science of disaster prediction and control ......... 10
        2.4.1  Modeling the disaster's dynamics ................ 12
        2.4.2  The fundamental transport equations ............. 13
        2.4.3  Closing the equations ........................... 14
        2.4.4  Compressibility ................................. 17
        2.4.5  Prandtl's breakthrough .......................... 20
        2.4.6  Turbulent flows ................................. 21
        2.4.7  Numerical solutions ............................. 23
        2.4.8  Other complexities .............................. 23
        2.4.9  Earthquakes ..................................... 25
        2.4.10 The butterfly effect ............................ 26
   2.5  Global Earth Observation System of Systems ............. 30
   2.6  The art of disaster management ......................... 31
   2.7  A bit of sociology ..................................... 32
   2.8  Few recent disasters ................................... 34
        2.8.1  San Francisco Earthquake ........................ 34
        2.8.2  Hyatt Regency walkway collapse .................. 38
        2.8.3  Izmit Earthquake ................................ 41
        2.8.4  September ....................................... 42
        2.8.5  Pacific Tsunami ................................. 43
        2.8.6  Hurricane Katrina ............................... 45
        2.8.7  Kashmir Earthquake .............................. 49
        2.8.8  Hurricane Wilma ................................. 49
        2.8.9  Hajj stampede of 2006 ........................... 54
        2.8.10 Al-Salam Boccaccio 98 ........................... 56
        2.8.11 Bird flu ........................................ 59
        2.8.12 Energy crisis ................................... 61
   2.9  Concluding remarks ..................................... 64
   References .................................................. 64

3  Multiscale modeling for large-scale disaster applications ... 69
      Ramana M. Pidaparti

   3.1  Introduction ........................................... 69
   3.2  Definition and modeling of scales in climate and
        weather ................................................ 71
        3.2.1  Global climate modeling ......................... 72
        3.2.2  Long-term climate simulation .................... 72
        3.2.3  Limits to predictability ........................ 72
        3.2.4  Global and regional climate models .............. 74
   3.3  Definition and modeling of scales during accidental
        release of toxic agents in urban environments .......... 77
   3.4  Multiscale modeling methods ............................ 81
        3.4.1  Key challenges .................................. 81
        3.4.2  Application of modeling methods to large-scale
               disasters ....................................... 81
        3.4.3  Multiscale modeling techniques .................. 82
        3.4.4  Molecular dynamics method ....................... 83
        3.4.5  Coarse-grained methods .......................... 84
        3.4.6  Monte Carlo methods ............................. 84
        3.4.7  Cellular automata ............................... 85
        3.4.8  Neural networks ................................. 86
        3.4.9  Mathematical homogenization ..................... 86
        3.4.10 Quasi-continuum method .......................... 87
        3.4.11 Heterogeneous multiscale method ................. 87
        3.4.12 Continuum methods ............................... 88
        3.4.13 Domain decomposition method and parallel
               computations .................................... 89
        3.4.14 Lattice Вoltzmann method ........................ 90
   3.5  Summary and outlook .................................... 91
   Acknowledgments ............................................. 91
   References .................................................. 91

4  Addressing the root causes of large-scale disasters ......... 94
      Ilan Kelman

   4.1  Definitions and context ................................ 94
        4.1.1  Defining disasters .............................. 94
        4.1.2  Do natural disasters exist? ..................... 97
   4.2  Root causes of disaster ................................ 98
        4.2.1  Case studies .................................... 98
        4.2.2  Root cause: vulnerability ...................... 101
        4.2.3  Root causes of vulnerability ................... 105
   4.3  Tackling root causes of disaster ...................... 108
        4.3.1  Principles ..................................... 108
        4.3.2  Illustrative case studies ...................... 109
   4.4  Conclusions ........................................... 113
   References ................................................. 114

5  Issues in disaster relief logistics ........................ 120
      Nezih Altay

   5.1  Introduction .......................................... 120
   5.2  Disaster relief issues identified in literature ....... 122
   5.3  Supply chain issues ................................... 123
        5.3.1  Funding issues ................................. 126
        5.3.2  Needs assessment and procurement ............... 127
        5.3.3  Management of information ...................... 129
        5.3.4  Coordination issues ............................ 130
        5.3.5  Transportation infrastructure and network
               design ......................................... 132
        5.3.6  Standardization of relief ...................... 132
   5.4  Operational issues .................................... 132
        5.4.1  Personnel issues ............................... 134
        5.4.2  Availability of technology ..................... 136
        5.4.3  Local resources ................................ 137
   5.5  Ethical issues ........................................ 139
        5.5.1  Discrimination ................................. 139
        5.5.2  Corruption ..................................... 139
   5.6  Political issues ...................................... 140
        5.6.1  Military use in disaster relief ................ 140
   5.7  Conclusions and future research directions ............ 142
        References ............................................ 143

6  Large-scale disasters: perspectives on medical response .... 147
      Jehan Elkholy and Mostafa Gad-el-Hak

   6.1  Introduction .......................................... 147
   6.2  Characteristics of disasters .......................... 148
   6.3  Classification of disasters ........................... 148
   6.4  Disaster management ................................... 149
   6.5  Phases of a disaster .................................. 150
        6.5.1  Phase I: disaster preparedness ................. 150
        6.5.2  Phase II: medical response ..................... 152
        6.5.3  Phase III: recovery ............................ 156
   6.6  Role of specialists ................................... 156
   6.7  Disaster evaluation ................................... 158
   6.8  Failure of disaster response and problems
        encountered during disaster management ................ 159
   6.9  Conclusions ........................................... 159
   References ................................................. 159

7  Augmentation of health care capacity in large-scale
   disasters .................................................. 161
      Atef M. Radwan

   7.1  Introduction .......................................... 161
   7.2  Definitions ........................................... 162
   7.3  Capacity augmentation of health care facility ......... 163
        7.3.1  Variables of health care capacity .............. 163
        7.3.2  Triage priorities .............................. 164
        7.3.3  Capacities in the medical assistance chain ..... 164
        7.3.4  Mass trauma casualty predictor ................. 166
        7.3.5  Increasing hospital bed capacity ............... 168
        7.3.6  Adaptation of existing capacity ................ 168
        7.3.7  Staff calling in and staff augmentation plan ... 169
        7.3.8  Modification of the standards of care .......... 170
        7.3.9  Triage of patients in mass critical care ....... 171
   7.4  Cooperative regional capacity augmentation ............ 171
   7.5  Off-site patient care ................................. 173
   7.6  Role of government .................................... 173
   7.7  Community involvement ................................. 174
   7.8  Summary ............................................... 174
   References ................................................. 175

8  Energy, climate change, and how to avoid a manmade
   disaster ................................................... 177
      Ahmed F. Ghoniem

   8.1  Introduction .......................................... 177
   8.2  Energy consumption—now and then ....................... 179
        8.2.1  How much we use ................................ 179
        8.2.2  Energy and how we live ......................... 179
        8.2.3  How much we will use ........................... 181
   8.3  Carbon dioxide ........................................ 183
        8.3.1  Greenhouse gases ............................... 184
        8.3.2  Energy balance ................................. 184
        8.3.3  Climate modeling ............................... 186
        8.3.4  Global warming and climate change .............. 189
   8.4  CO2 emission mitigation ............................... 194
        8.4.1  Implementing multiple solutions ................ 195
        8.4.2  The "wedges" ................................... 196
   8.5  Low-carbon fossil conversion technologies ............. 198
        8.5.1  Chemical energy ................................ 199
        8.5.2  CO2 capture .................................... 200
        8.5.3  Electrochemical separation ..................... 203
        8.5.4  Synfuel production ............................. 203
   8.6  Zero-carbon conversion technologies: nuclear and
        renewable sources ..................................... 203
        8.6.1  Nuclear energy ................................. 204
        8.6.2  Hydraulic power ................................ 204
        8.6.3  Geothermal energy .............................. 205
        8.6.4  Wind energy .................................... 205
        8.6.5  Solar energy ................................... 206
        8.6.6  Biomass energy ................................. 206
        8.6.7  Renewable sources and storage .................. 207
   8.7  Transportation ........................................ 208
   8.8  Conclusions ........................................... 209
   References ................................................. 210

9  Seawater agriculture for energy, wanning, food, land,
   and water .................................................. 212
      Dennis M. Bushnell

   9.1  Introduction .......................................... 212
   9.2  Biomass and the Sahara ................................ 213
   9.3  Saline/salt water agriculture ......................... 214
   9.4  Additional impacts/benefits of saline/seawater
        agriculture ........................................... 215
   9.5  Summary ............................................... 216
   References ................................................. 217

10 Natural and anthropogenic aerosol-related hazards
   affecting megacities ....................................... 218
      Hesham El-Askary and Menas Kafatos

   10.1 Introduction .......................................... 218
   10.2 Aerosol properties .................................... 221
   10.3 Sand and dust storms .................................. 221
        10.3.1 Remote sensing of sand and dust storms ......... 222
        10.3.2 Egypt case study ............................... 223
        10.3.3 India case study ............................... 230
        10.3.4 Modeling of dust storms (dust cycle model) ..... 236
   10.4 Air pollution ......................................... 239
        10.4.1 Cairo air pollution case study ................. 239
        10.4.2 Pollution effects forcing on large-scale
               vegetation in India ............................ 242
   10.5 Forcing component ..................................... 245
        10.5.1 Egypt case study ............................... 248
        10.5.2 China case study ............................... 249
   10.6 Conclusions ........................................... 252
   Acknowledgments ............................................ 254
   References ................................................. 254

11 Tsunamis: manifestation and aftermath ...................... 258
      Harindra J.S. Fernando, Alexander Braun, Ranjit
      Galappatti, Janaka Ruwanpura, and S. Chan Wirasinghe

   11.1 Introduction .......................................... 258
   11.2 Causes of tsunamis: a general overview ................ 262
   11.3 Hydrodynamics of tsunamis ............................. 263
   11.4 Ecological impacts of tsunamis—a general overview ..... 265
   11.5 The Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami .................... 267
        11.5.1 The Sumatra-Andaman Island Earthquake,
               26 December 2004 ............................... 267
        11.5.2 The Sumatra Tsunami in Sri Lanka ............... 269
        11.5.3 Wave observations and impacts on Sri Lanka ..... 270
        11.5.4 The impact on Sri Lanka ........................ 271
   11.6 Tsunami warning systems ............................... 282
   11.7 Planning for tsunamis ................................. 283
        11.7.1 Components of the stochastic scheduling
               network ........................................ 284
   11.8 Conclusions ........................................... 289
   Acknowledgments ............................................ 289
   References ................................................. 290

12 Intermediate-scale dynamics of the upper troposphere
   and stratosphere ........................................... 293
      James J. Riley

   12.1 Background ............................................ 293
   12.2 More recent interpretation of data .................... 295
   12.3 Results from numerical simulations .................... 296
   12.4 Implications .......................................... 298
   12.5 Summary ............................................... 300
   References ................................................. 300

13 Coupled weather-chemistry modeling ......................... 302
      Georg A. Grell

   13.1 Introduction .......................................... 302
   13.2 Fully coupled online modeling ......................... 302
        13.2.1 Grid scale transport of species ................ 303
        13.2.2 Subgrid scale transport ........................ 303
        13.2.3 Dry deposition ................................. 304
        13.2.4 Gas-phase chemistry ............................ 304
        13.2.5 Parameterization of aerosols ................... 305
        13.2.6 Photolysis frequencies ......................... 306
   13.3 Online versus offline modeling ........................ 306
   13.4 Application in global change research ................. 312
   13.5 Concluding remarks .................................... 314
   References ................................................. 315

14 Seasonal-to-decadal prediction using climate models:
   successes and challenges ................................... 318
      Ramalingam Saravanan

   14.1 Introduction .......................................... 318
   14.2 Potentially predictable phenomena ..................... 321
   14.3 Successes in dynamical climate prediction ............. 322
   14.4 Challenges that remain ................................ 325
   14.5 Summary ............................................... 326
   References ................................................. 327

15 Climate change and related disasters ....................... 329
      Ashraf S. Zakey, Filippo Giorgi, and Jeremy Pal

   15.1 Introduction 329 15.1.1  Definitions of climate
        parameters ............................................ 330
   15.2 A brief review of regional climate modeling ........... 332
   15.3 ICTP regional climate model ........................... 335
   15.4 Climate change and extreme events ..................... 337
        15.4.1  Defining changes of extremes .................. 337
   15.5 Extremes and climate variability ...................... 341
   15.6 Regional impact studies ............................... 346
        15.6.1 Severe summertime flooding in Europe ........... 346
        15.6.2 Warming and heat wave .......................... 347
        15.6.3 Wind storms (hurricanes) ....................... 351
   15.7 Summary ............................................... 352
   Acknowledgments ............................................ 357
   References ................................................. 357

16 Impact of climate change on precipitation .................. 363
      Roy Rasmussen, Aiguo Dai, and Kevin E. Trenberth

   16.1 Introduction .......................................... 363
   16.2 Precipitation processes in observations and models .... 364
        16.2.1 Evaluation of model simulated changes in
               precipitation by examination of the diurnal
               cycle .......................................... 366
        16.2.2 Observed trends in moisture and extreme
               precipitation events ........................... 368
   16.3 How should precipitation change as the climate
        changes? .............................................. 371
   16.4 Questions and issues .................................. 373
   16.5 Summary ............................................... 374
   Acknowledgments ............................................ 374
   References ................................................. 374

17 Weather-related disasters in arid lands .................... 377
      Thomas T. Warner

   17.1  Introduction ......................................... 377
   17.2 Severe weather in arid lands .......................... 378
        17.2.1 Dust storms and sand storms .................... 378
        17.2.2 Rainstorms, floods, and debris flows ........... 391
   17.3 Desertification ....................................... 396
        17.3.1 What is desertification? ....................... 396
        17.3.2 Extent of desertification ...................... 399
        17.3.3 Anthropogenic contributions to
               desertification ................................ 401
        17.3.4 Natural contributions to desertification ....... 409
        17.3.5 Additional selected case studies and examples
               of desertification ............................. 409
        17.3.6 Physical process feedbacks that may affect
               desertification ................................ 414
        17.3.7 Satellite-based methods for detecting and
               mapping desertification ........................ 417
   17.4 Summary ............................................... 418
   References ................................................. 420

18 The first hundred years of numerical weather prediction .... 427
      Janusz Pudykiewicz and Gilbert Brunet

   18.1 Forecasting before equations .......................... 427
   18.2 The birth of theoretical meteorology .................. 429
   18.3 Initial attempts of scientifically based weather
        prediction ............................................ 432
   18.4 Bergen school of meteorology .......................... 433
   18.5 First numerical integration of the primitive
        meteorological equations .............................. 434
   18.6 Weather forecasting after Richardson .................. 436
   18.7 Richardson's experiment revisited and the birth of
        forecasting based on primitive equations .............. 439
   18.8 Expansion of the scope of traditional meteorological
        prediction ............................................ 439
   18.9 Development of the modern atmospheric prediction
        systems ............................................... 440
   18.10 From weather prediction to environmental
         engineering and climate control ...................... 441
   18.11 Conclusions .......................................... 444
   References ................................................. 444

19 Fundamental issues in numerical weather prediction ......... 447
      Jimy Dudhia

   19.1 Introduction .......................................... 447
   19.2 Disaster-related weather .............................. 447
   19.3 Disaster prediction strategies ........................ 448
        19.3.1 Medium-range prediction (5-10 days) ............ 448
        19.3.2 Short-range prediction (3-5 days) .............. 448
        19.3.3 Day-to-day prediction (1-3 days) ............... 449
        19.3.4 Very short-range prediction (<1 day) ........... 449
   19.4 Fundamental issues: atmospheric predictability ........ 449
   19.5 The model ............................................. 450
        19.5.1 Model physics .................................. 450
        19.5.2 Model dynamics ................................. 451
        19.5.3 Model numerics ................................. 451
   19.6 Model data ............................................ 451
   19.7 Conclusions ........................................... 452
   References ................................................. 452

20 Space measurements for disaster response:
   the International Charter .................................. 453
      Ahmed Mahmood and Mohammed Shokr

   20.1 Introduction .......................................... 453
   20.2 Space remote sensing and disaster management .......... 454
   20.3 General principles of remote sensing .................. 459
        20.3.1 Optical, thermal, and microwave imaging ........ 461
        20.3.2 Image processing, information contents, and
               interpretation ................................. 470
        20.3.3 Geophysical parameter retrieval and value
               adding ......................................... 475
        20.3.4 Image classification and change detection ...... 477
   20.4 Space-based initiatives for disaster management ....... 479
   20.5 About the charter ..................................... 482
        20.5.1 History and operations ......................... 484
        20.5.2 A constellation of sensors and satellites ...... 491
        20.5.3 Mission summaries .............................. 500
        20.5.4 Applicable policies ............................ 504
        20.5.5 Performance update ............................. 511
   20.6 Disaster coverage ..................................... 515
        20.6.1 Activation criteria ............................ 515
        20.6.2 Data acquisition planning ...................... 516
        20.6.3 Reporting and user feedback .................... 518
   20.7 Case histories ........................................ 519
        20.7.1 Nyiragongo vole anic eruption .................. 519
        20.7.2 Southern Manitoba flood ........................ 521
        20.7.3 Galicia oil spill .............................. 522
        20.7.4 South Asian Tsunami ............................ 525
        20.7.5 French forest fires ............................ 527
        20.7.6 Hurricane Katrina .............................. 528
        20.7.7 Kashmir Earthquake ............................. 531
        20.7.8 Philippines landslide .......................... 532
        20.7.9 Central Europe floods .......................... 534
   20.8 Concluding remarks .................................... 539
   Acknowledgments ............................................ 539
   References ................................................. 540

21 Weather satellite measurements: their use for prediction ... 542
      William L. Smith

   21.1 Introduction .......................................... 542
   21.2 Weather satellite measurements ........................ 542
   21.3 Global Earth Observation System of Systems ............ 544
   21.4 The current and planned space component ............... 545
   21.5 Vegetation index ...................................... 547
   21.6 Flash floods .......................................... 549
   21.7 Severe thunderstorms and hurricanes ................... 551
   21.8 Improvements in the satellite observing system ........ 556
   21.9 Summary ............................................... 565
   Acknowledgments ............................................ 566
   References ................................................. 566

Epilogue ...................................................... 569

Index ......................................................... 573

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