 | Ñàôîíîâà Ë.À. Èíòåãðàöèÿ Ðîññèè â ìèðîâîå èíôîðìàöèîííîå ïðîñòðàíñòâî: (Ïðîáëåìû è ïåðñïåêòèâû) / Ñàôîíîâà Ë.À., Ñìîëîâèê Ã.Í. - Íîâîñèáèðñê: ÑèáÃÓÒÈ, 2005. - 139 ñ. | |
ÎÃËÀÂËÅÍÈÅ ...................................................... 3
1 ÈÍÔÎÐÌÀÖÈÎÍÍÎÅ ÎÁÙÅÑÒÂÎ È ÒÅËÅÊÎÌÌÓÍÈÊÀÖÈÎÍÍÛÉ ÊÎÌÏËÅÊÑ ÐÎÑÑÈÈ 4
1.1 ÐÀÇÂÈÒÈÅ ÍÎÂÛÕ ÈÍÔÎÐÌÀÖÈÎÍÍÎ-ÊÎÌÌÓÍÈÊÀÖÈÎÍÍÛÕ ÒÅÕÍÎËÎÃÈÉ
ÊÀÊ ÁÀÇÀ ÑÒÀÍÎÂËÅÍÈß ÈÍÔÎÐÌÀÖÈÎÍÍÎÃÎ ÎÁÙÅÑÒÂÀ ................. 4
1.2 ÏÅÐÑÏÅÊÒÈÂÛ ÈÍÒÅÃÐÀÖÈÈ ÐÎÑÑÈÈ Â ÃÈÎ ...................... 12
1.3 ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÀß ÏÐÈÂËÅÊÀÒÅËÜÍÎÑÒÜ ÎÒÐÀÑËÈ ÑÂßÇÈ ........... 15
2 ÎÖÅÍÊÀ ÏÐÎÃÍÎÇÍÎÃÎ ÓÐÎÂÍß ÏÎÒÐÅÁÍÎÑÒÅÉ Â ÓÑËÓÃÀÕ ÑÂßÇÈ ....... 21
2.1 ÏÐÎÃÍÎÇÈÐÎÂÀÍÈÅ ÍÀ ÎÑÍÎÂÅ ÒÅÍÄÅÍÖÈÉ ÐÀÇÂÈÒÈß ÌÈÐÎÂÎÃÎ
ÒÅËÅÊÎÌÌÓÍÈÊÀÖÈÎÍÍÎÃÎ ÊÎÌÏËÅÊÑÀ .............................. 21
2.2 ÏÐÈÌÅÍÅÍÈÅ ÊËÀÑÒÅÐÍÎÃÎ ÀÍÀËÈÇÀ ÄËß ÈÑÑËÅÄÎÂÀÍÈß ÑÎÎÒÍÎØÅÍÈÉ
ÓÐÎÂÍÅÉ ÐÀÇÂÈÒÈß ÈÍÔÎÊÎÌÌÓÍÈÊÀÖÈÉ ............................ 24
3 ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÎÅ ÏÐÎÅÊÒÈÐÎÂÀÍÈÅ Â ÓÑËÎÂÈßÕ ÍÅÎÏÐÅÄÅËÅÍÍÎÑÒÈ .... 38
3.1 ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÛÅ ÏÐÎÅÊÒÛ ÊÀÊ ÎÁÚÅÊÒ ÓÏÐÀÂËÅÍÈß ............. 38
3.2 ÏÎÍßÒÈÅ ÐÈÑÊÀ È ÍÅÎÏÐÅÄÅËÅÍÍÎÑÒÈ ......................... 40
3.3 ÂÈÄÛ ÐÈÑÊΠÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÛÕ ÏÐÎÅÊÒΠ ÎÒÐÀÑËÈ ÑÂßÇÈ ...... 42
4 ÌÅÒÎÄÎËÎÃÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÀÑÏÅÊÒ ÓÏÐÀÂËÅÍÈß ÐÈÑÊÀÌÈ ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÛÕ
ÏÐÎÅÊÒÎÂ ....................................................... 46
4.1 ÎÑÎÁÅÍÍÎÑÒÈ ÐÈÑÊ-ÌÅÍÅÄÆÌÅÍÒÀ Â ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÎÌ
ÏÐÎÅÊÒÈÐÎÂÀÍÈÈ ............................................... 46
4.2 ÑÈÑÒÅÌÀ ÓÏÐÀÂËÅÍÈß ÐÈÑÊÀÌÈ ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÎÃÎ ÏÐÎÅÊÒÀ ....... 47
4.3 ÏÐÎÖÅÑÑ ÓÏÐÀÂËÅÍÈß ÐÈÑÊÀÌÈ ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÎÃÎ ÏÐÎÅÊÒÀ ....... 49
4.4 ÌÅÒÎÄÛ ÊÎËÈ×ÅÑÒÂÅÍÍÎÉ ÎÖÅÍÊÈ ÐÈÑÊΠÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÛÕ ÏÐÎÅÊÒÎÂ53
4.3.1 Ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèå ìåòîäû ............................... 53
4.3.2 Ýêñïåðòíûå ìåòîäû ................................... 56
4.3.3 Ðàñ÷åòíî-àíàë÷òè÷åñêèå ìåòîäû ....................... 57
4.3.4 Êîìáèíèðîâàííûå ìåòîäû .............................. 60
5 ÀÍÀËÈÇ ÑÓÙÅÑÒÂÓÞÙÈÕ ÏÎÄÕÎÄÎÂ Ê ÎÖÅÍÊÅ ÝÔÔÅÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ
ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÛÕ ÏÐÎÅÊÒÎÂ ........................................ 64
5.1 ÑÒÀÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÅ ÌÅÒÎÄÛ ÎÖÅÍÊÈ ÝÔÔÅÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÉ ....... 64
5.2 ÄÈÍÀÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÅ ÌÅÒÎÄÛ ÎÖÅÍÊÈ ÝÔÔÅÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÉ ...... 66
5.3 ÈÑÏÎËÜÇÎÂÀÍÈÅ ÒÅÎÐÈÈ ÐÅÀËÜÍÛÕ ÎÏÖÈÎÍÎÂ Â ÏÐÀÊÒÈÊÅ ÏÐÈÍßÒÈß
ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÛÕ ÐÅØÅÍÈÉ ....................................... 81
5.3.1 Òåîðåòè÷åñêàÿ êîíöåïöèÿ îïöèîíîâ .................... 81
5.3.2 Âèäû ðåàëüíûõ îïöèîíîâ .............................. 87
5.3.3 Ïðàêòè÷åñêèå âîïðîñû èñïîëüçîâàíèÿ òåîðèè ðåàëüíûõ
îòöþíîâ ............................................. 91
6 ÏÐÀÊÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÏÐÈÌÅÐ ÓÏÐÀÂËÅÍÈß ÐÈÑÊÎÌ ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÎÃÎ ÏÐÎÅÊÒÀ 102
6.1 ÊÐÀÒÊÀß ÕÀÐÀÊÒÅÐÈÑÒÈÊÀ ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÎÃÎ ÏÐÎÅÊÒÀ .......... 102
6.2 ÐÀÑ×ÅÒ ÎÑÍÎÂÍÛÕ ÒÅÕÍÈÊÎ-ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÕ ÏÎÊÀÇÀÒÅËÅÉ ÈÏ .... 109
6.3 ÊÎËÈ×ÅÑÒÂÅÍÍÀß ÎÖÅÍÊÀ ÐÈÑÊÀ ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÎÃÎ ÏÐÎÅÊÒÀ ÍÀ
ÎÑÍÎÂÅ ÈÌÈÒÀÖÈÎÍÍÎÃÎ ÌÎÄÅËÈÐÎÂÀÍÈß ÏÎ ÌÅÒÎÄÓ ÌÎÍÒÅ-ÊÀÐËÎ .... 110
6.4 ÈÑÑËÅÄÎÂÀÍÈÅ ÐÅÀËÜÍÛÕ ÎÏÖÈÎÍÎÂ ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÎÍÍÎÃÎ ÏÐÎÅÊÒÀ .... 116
ÑÏÈÑÎÊ ÈÑÏÎËÜÇÎÂÀÍÍÛÕ ÈÑÒÎ×ÍÈÊΠ.............................. 120
ÏÐÈËÎÆÅÍÈß .................................................... 124
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|  ìîíîãðàôèè ðàññìîòðåíû îñíîâíûå ïðîáëåìû, ñòîÿùèå ïåðåä òåëåêîììóíèêàöèîííûì êîìïëåêñîì Ðîññèè, ñâÿçàííûå ñ ñîçäàíèåì Ãëîáàëüíîãî èíôîðìàöèîííîãî îáùåñòâà. Ïðåäñòàâëåíà òî÷êà çðåíèÿ àâòîðîâ íà âîïðîñû ïðîãíîçèðîâàíèÿ ïîòðåáíîñòåé â óñëóãàõ ÒÊ, îöåíêè ýôôåêòèâíîñòè èíâåñòèöèîííûõ ïðîåêòîâ â óñëîâèÿõ ðèñêà.
Äëÿ àñïèðàíòîâ, ñòóäåíòîâ è ñïåöèàëèñòîâ òåëåêîììóíèêàöèîííûõ êîìïàíèé.
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